Bayesian Posterior Prediction and Meta-Analysis:
An Application to the Value of Travel Time Savings

Abstract

In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. For this purpose, this paper presents an approach that combines Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an illustrative application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.

JEL Classification: C11, D61, L91.
Keywords: Bayesian Prediction, Meta-Analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Value of Travel Time Savings.

MPRA Paper No. 12861. (submitted)